Abu Dhabi city centre sits 133.6 km from Dubai Intl, the most plausible strategic target in the area (low targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 150 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99% · Estimated metro fatalities: 86.7K, injuries: 104.4K
What a strike on Dubai Intl would mean
A 150 kt detonation produces a fireball 490 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.8 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 3.7 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 8.2 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 5.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Abu Dhabi the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near Abu Dhabi
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai Intl | airport | 134 km | 150 kt | low |
| Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia | energy | 488 km | 300 kt | high |
| Riyadh | government | 779 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Natanz enrichment, Iran | energy | 1062 km | 150 kt | high |
| Arak IR-40, Iran | energy | 1188 km | 150 kt | medium |
Key blast radii (150 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 490 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.8 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 3.7 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 5.2 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.1 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 8.2 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Abu Dhabi can prepare
With a population density of 300 people/km², Abu Dhabi's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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