Almaty city centre sits 1115.8 km from Islamabad, the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 150 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99% · Estimated metro fatalities: 28.9K, injuries: 34.8K
What a strike on Islamabad would mean
A 150 kt detonation produces a fireball 490 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.8 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 3.7 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 8.2 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 5.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Almaty the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near Almaty
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islamabad | government | 1116 km | 150 kt | high |
| Novosibirsk | industrial | 1377 km | 300 kt | medium |
| Dombarovskiy ICBM base | military | 1569 km | 800 kt | high |
| Uzhur ICBM base, Siberia | military | 1626 km | 800 kt | high |
| New Delhi government district | government | 1628 km | 300 kt | high |
Key blast radii (150 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 490 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.8 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 3.7 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 5.2 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.1 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 8.2 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Almaty can prepare
With a population density of 2,600 people/km², Almaty's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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