Chicago city centre sits 393 m from Chicago Loop, the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 455 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 0% · Estimated metro fatalities: 479.2K, injuries: 577.1K
What a strike on Chicago Loop would mean
A 455 kt detonation produces a fireball 763 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.6 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 5.3 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 11.9 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 8.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Chicago the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near Chicago
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Loop | city | 0 km | 455 kt | high |
| Chicago O’Hare | airport | 25 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Detroit industrial core | industrial | 381 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Whiteman AFB (B-2) | military | 612 km | 455 kt | high |
| Pittsburgh | industrial | 659 km | 100 kt | low |
Key blast radii (455 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 763 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 2.6 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 5.3 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 8.2 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.6 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 11.9 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Chicago can prepare
With a population density of 4,600 people/km², Chicago's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
Check your exact address in Chicago →