Nuclear Impact Analysis · United States

Is Detroit safe from a nuclear strike?

We modelled the most plausible strategic targets around Detroit and simulated blast, thermal, radiation and fallout effects against its 3,500,000 metro residents.

30/100
HIGH RISK

Detroit city centre sits 0 m from Detroit industrial core, the most plausible strategic target in the area (medium targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 150 kt airburst.

Estimated survival chance at city centre: 0% · Estimated metro fatalities: 84.3K, injuries: 101.5K

Run the interactive simulation for Detroit →

What a strike on Detroit industrial core would mean

A 150 kt detonation produces a fireball 490 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.8 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 3.7 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 8.2 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 5.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.

An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Detroit the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.

Most plausible targets near Detroit

TargetTypeDistanceAssumed yieldConfidence
Detroit industrial coreindustrial0 km150 ktmedium
Toronto financial districtcity332 km300 ktmedium
Chicago Loopcity381 km455 kthigh
Pittsburghindustrial330 km100 ktlow
Chicago O’Hareairport403 km150 ktmedium

Key blast radii (150 kt airburst)

EffectRadiusWhat happens
Fireball490 mComplete vaporisation
20 psi blast1.8 kmHardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities
5 psi blast3.7 kmMost buildings collapse, widespread fatalities
3rd-degree burns5.2 kmFull-thickness burns to exposed skin
500 rem radiation2.1 kmLethal dose without medical care
1 psi blast8.2 kmWindow breakage, light damage, glass injuries

How Detroit can prepare

With a population density of 1,600 people/km², Detroit's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.

Check your exact address in Detroit →
Model disclaimer: These are research-grade estimates from open scaling laws (Glasstone & Dolan, 1977), not predictions. Actual outcomes depend on burst height, weapon choice, weather, terrain and sheltering. In any real emergency follow official civil-defence guidance.

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