Nagoya city centre sits 229.9 km from Yokota Air Base, Japan, the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 300 kt surface burst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99%
What a strike on Yokota Air Base, Japan would mean
A 300 kt detonation produces a fireball 743 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.8 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 3.7 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 8.3 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 6.9 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 86 km east of ground zero. Nagoya city centre lies outside the projected corridor under these wind assumptions.
Most plausible targets near Nagoya
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokota Air Base, Japan | military | 230 km | 300 kt | high |
| Yokosuka Naval Base | military | 251 km | 300 kt | high |
| Tokyo (Kasumigaseki) | government | 264 km | 300 kt | high |
| Haneda, Tokyo | airport | 264 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Iwakuni MCAS, Japan | military | 442 km | 300 kt | high |
Key blast radii (300 kt surface burst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 743 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.8 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 3.7 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 6.9 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.4 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 8.3 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Nagoya can prepare
With a population density of 6,800 people/km², Nagoya's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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