Phoenix city centre sits 73.4 km from Palo Verde nuclear plant, the most plausible strategic target in the area (medium targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 150 kt surface burst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99%
What a strike on Palo Verde nuclear plant would mean
A 150 kt detonation produces a fireball 563 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.4 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 2.9 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 6.6 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 5.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 63 km east of ground zero. Phoenix city centre lies outside the projected corridor under these wind assumptions.
Most plausible targets near Phoenix
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palo Verde nuclear plant | energy | 73 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Palo Verde Nuclear | energy | 73 km | 100 kt | low |
| Hoover Dam | energy | 375 km | 100 kt | medium |
| Naval Base San Diego | military | 480 km | 455 kt | high |
| Port of LA / Long Beach | port | 570 km | 300 kt | high |
Key blast radii (150 kt surface burst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 563 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.4 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 2.9 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 5.2 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.1 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 6.6 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Phoenix can prepare
With a population density of 1,200 people/km², Phoenix's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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