Nuclear safety in South Africa: city-by-city scores

Physics-based nuclear blast and fallout assessment for 3 South Africa cities. Average safety score: 77/100. Safest city: Cape Town (100/100). Most at risk: Johannesburg (30/100).

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RankCityScoreRisk level
1Cape Town100/100MINIMAL
2Durban100/100MINIMAL
3Johannesburg30/100HIGH

How are these scores calculated?

Each city is assessed by identifying the most plausible nearby strategic target (military bases, government centres, energy facilities), then modelling blast overpressure, thermal radiation, prompt radiation and wind-driven fallout using scaling relationships from Glasstone & Dolan's The Effects of Nuclear Weapons (1977). The four effects are combined into a 0–100 safety score.

Disclaimer: Research-grade estimates only. Follow official civil-defence guidance in any emergency.

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