Nuclear Impact Analysis · United States

Is Boston safe from a nuclear strike?

We modelled the most plausible strategic targets around Boston and simulated blast, thermal, radiation and fallout effects against its 4,900,000 metro residents.

30/100
HIGH RISK

Boston city centre sits 0 m from Boston (Route 128 tech), the most plausible strategic target in the area (medium targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 300 kt airburst.

Estimated survival chance at city centre: 0% · Estimated metro fatalities: 187.2K, injuries: 225.5K

Run the interactive simulation for Boston →

What a strike on Boston (Route 128 tech) would mean

A 300 kt detonation produces a fireball 646 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.3 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 4.6 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 10.4 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 6.9 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.

An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Boston the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.

Most plausible targets near Boston

TargetTypeDistanceAssumed yieldConfidence
Boston (Route 128 tech)city0 km300 ktmedium
Manhattan financial districtcity307 km800 kthigh
Port of NY & New Jerseyport312 km300 kthigh
JFK, New Yorkairport296 km150 ktmedium
60 Hudson St, New Yorkcommunication306 km100 ktlow

Key blast radii (300 kt airburst)

EffectRadiusWhat happens
Fireball646 mComplete vaporisation
20 psi blast2.3 kmHardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities
5 psi blast4.6 kmMost buildings collapse, widespread fatalities
3rd-degree burns6.9 kmFull-thickness burns to exposed skin
500 rem radiation2.4 kmLethal dose without medical care
1 psi blast10.4 kmWindow breakage, light damage, glass injuries

How Boston can prepare

With a population density of 5,400 people/km², Boston's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.

Check your exact address in Boston →
Model disclaimer: These are research-grade estimates from open scaling laws (Glasstone & Dolan, 1977), not predictions. Actual outcomes depend on burst height, weapon choice, weather, terrain and sheltering. In any real emergency follow official civil-defence guidance.

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