Tel Aviv city centre sits 1.6 km from Tel Aviv / HaKirya, the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 150 kt surface burst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 25% · Estimated metro fatalities: 67.8K, injuries: 81.6K
What a strike on Tel Aviv / HaKirya would mean
A 150 kt detonation produces a fireball 563 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.4 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 2.9 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 6.6 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 5.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 63 km east of ground zero. Tel Aviv city centre lies inside that projected corridor — sheltering indoors for 24–48 hours would be critical.
Most plausible targets near Tel Aviv
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tel Aviv / HaKirya | military | 2 km | 150 kt | high |
| Dimona Nuclear Research, Israel | energy | 124 km | 150 kt | high |
| Cairo | city | 407 km | 150 kt | low |
| Incirlik Air Base | military | 550 km | 300 kt | medium |
| Istanbul (Bosphorus) | city | 1119 km | 300 kt | medium |
Key blast radii (150 kt surface burst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 563 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.4 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 2.9 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 5.2 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.1 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 6.6 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Tel Aviv can prepare
With a population density of 8,400 people/km², Tel Aviv's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
Check your exact address in Tel Aviv →