Cardiff city centre sits 30.7 km from Hinkley Point, the most plausible strategic target in the area (low targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 100 kt surface burst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99%
What a strike on Hinkley Point would mean
A 100 kt detonation produces a fireball 479 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.3 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 2.6 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 5.8 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 4.4 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 52 km east of ground zero. Cardiff city centre lies outside the projected corridor under these wind assumptions.
Most plausible targets near Cardiff
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hinkley Point | energy | 31 km | 100 kt | low |
| Whitehall, London | government | 210 km | 455 kt | high |
| Heathrow, London | airport | 188 km | 150 kt | medium |
| RAF Lakenheath | military | 276 km | 300 kt | high |
| Menwith Hill, UK | communication | 298 km | 150 kt | high |
Key blast radii (100 kt surface burst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 479 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.3 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 2.6 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 4.4 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 1.9 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 5.8 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Cardiff can prepare
With a population density of 2,800 people/km², Cardiff's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
Check your exact address in Cardiff →