Kabul city centre sits 366.5 km from Islamabad, the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 150 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99% · Estimated metro fatalities: 28.9K, injuries: 34.8K
What a strike on Islamabad would mean
A 150 kt detonation produces a fireball 490 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.8 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 3.7 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 8.2 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 5.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Kabul the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near Kabul
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islamabad | government | 367 km | 150 kt | high |
| New Delhi government district | government | 1005 km | 300 kt | high |
| Karachi port & industry | port | 1101 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Natanz enrichment, Iran | energy | 1610 km | 150 kt | high |
| Tehran government district | government | 1620 km | 150 kt | medium |
Key blast radii (150 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 490 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.8 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 3.7 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 5.2 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.1 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 8.2 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Kabul can prepare
With a population density of 6,500 people/km², Kabul's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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