Nuclear Impact Analysis · United Kingdom

Is Glasgow safe from a nuclear strike?

We modelled the most plausible strategic targets around Glasgow and simulated blast, thermal, radiation and fallout effects against its 1,800,000 metro residents.

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MINIMAL RISK

Glasgow city centre sits 41.9 km from Faslane (HMNB Clyde, SSBN), the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 800 kt surface burst.

Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99%

Run the interactive simulation for Glasgow →

What a strike on Faslane (HMNB Clyde, SSBN) would mean

A 800 kt detonation produces a fireball 1.1 km across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.5 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 5.1 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 11.5 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 10.3 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.

Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 134 km east of ground zero. Glasgow city centre lies outside the projected corridor under these wind assumptions.

Most plausible targets near Glasgow

TargetTypeDistanceAssumed yieldConfidence
Faslane (HMNB Clyde, SSBN)military42 km800 kthigh
Menwith Hill, UKcommunication263 km150 kthigh
RAF Lakenheathmilitary496 km300 kthigh
Heathrow, Londonairport549 km150 ktmedium
Whitehall, Londongovernment556 km455 kthigh

Key blast radii (800 kt surface burst)

EffectRadiusWhat happens
Fireball1.1 kmComplete vaporisation
20 psi blast2.5 kmHardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities
5 psi blast5.1 kmMost buildings collapse, widespread fatalities
3rd-degree burns10.3 kmFull-thickness burns to exposed skin
500 rem radiation2.8 kmLethal dose without medical care
1 psi blast11.5 kmWindow breakage, light damage, glass injuries

How Glasgow can prepare

With a population density of 3,400 people/km², Glasgow's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.

Check your exact address in Glasgow →
Model disclaimer: These are research-grade estimates from open scaling laws (Glasstone & Dolan, 1977), not predictions. Actual outcomes depend on burst height, weapon choice, weather, terrain and sheltering. In any real emergency follow official civil-defence guidance.

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