Honolulu city centre sits 12.6 km from Pearl Harbor / Hickam, the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 455 kt surface burst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 85%
What a strike on Pearl Harbor / Hickam would mean
A 455 kt detonation produces a fireball 878 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.1 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 4.2 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 9.5 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 8.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 104 km east of ground zero. Honolulu city centre lies inside that projected corridor — sheltering indoors for 24–48 hours would be critical.
Most plausible targets near Honolulu
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pearl Harbor / Hickam | military | 13 km | 455 kt | high |
| San Francisco / Silicon Valley | city | 3867 km | 455 kt | high |
| Diablo Canyon nuclear plant | energy | 3911 km | 100 kt | low |
| Vandenberg SFB | military | 3924 km | 300 kt | high |
| LAX, Los Angeles | airport | 4103 km | 150 kt | medium |
Key blast radii (455 kt surface burst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 878 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 2.1 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 4.2 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 8.2 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.6 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 9.5 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Honolulu can prepare
With a population density of 2,200 people/km², Honolulu's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
Check your exact address in Honolulu →