Lima city centre sits 3137.4 km from Buenos Aires, the most plausible strategic target in the area (low targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 150 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99% · Estimated metro fatalities: 370.7K, injuries: 446.4K
What a strike on Buenos Aires would mean
A 150 kt detonation produces a fireball 490 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.8 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 3.7 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 8.2 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 5.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Lima the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near Lima
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buenos Aires | city | 3137 km | 150 kt | low |
| São Paulo (Paulista) | city | 3452 km | 300 kt | low |
| Mexico City centre | city | 4255 km | 300 kt | low |
| Kings Bay Naval Base (SSBN) | military | 4789 km | 800 kt | high |
| Port of Savannah | port | 4931 km | 150 kt | medium |
Key blast radii (150 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 490 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.8 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 3.7 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 5.2 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.1 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 8.2 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Lima can prepare
With a population density of 3,200 people/km², Lima's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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