New York city centre sits 740 m from Manhattan financial district, the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 800 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 0% · Estimated metro fatalities: 1.4M, injuries: 1.7M
What a strike on Manhattan financial district would mean
A 800 kt detonation produces a fireball 957 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 3.2 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 6.4 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 14.4 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 10.3 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for New York the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near New York
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manhattan financial district | city | 1 km | 800 kt | high |
| Port of NY & New Jersey | port | 6 km | 300 kt | high |
| JFK, New York | airport | 21 km | 150 kt | medium |
| 60 Hudson St, New York | communication | 1 km | 100 kt | low |
| Fort Meade / NSA | communication | 296 km | 300 kt | high |
Key blast radii (800 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 957 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 3.2 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 6.4 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 10.3 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.8 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 14.4 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How New York can prepare
With a population density of 11,000 people/km², New York's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
Check your exact address in New York →