Shenzhen city centre sits 0 m from Shenzhen tech corridor, the most plausible strategic target in the area (medium targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 300 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 0% · Estimated metro fatalities: 668.7K, injuries: 805.3K
What a strike on Shenzhen tech corridor would mean
A 300 kt detonation produces a fireball 646 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.3 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 4.6 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 10.4 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 6.9 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Shenzhen the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near Shenzhen
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shenzhen tech corridor | industrial | 0 km | 300 kt | medium |
| Sanya naval base (SSBN) | military | 677 km | 455 kt | high |
| Hsinchu Science Park (TSMC) | industrial | 749 km | 300 kt | high |
| Taipei (government & tech) | government | 812 km | 300 kt | high |
| Hanoi | government | 864 km | 150 kt | low |
Key blast radii (300 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 646 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 2.3 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 4.6 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 6.9 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.4 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 10.4 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Shenzhen can prepare
With a population density of 8,800 people/km², Shenzhen's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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