Edinburgh city centre sits 102.1 km from Faslane (HMNB Clyde, SSBN), the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 800 kt surface burst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99%
What a strike on Faslane (HMNB Clyde, SSBN) would mean
A 800 kt detonation produces a fireball 1.1 km across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.5 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 5.1 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 11.5 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 10.3 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 134 km east of ground zero. Edinburgh city centre lies outside the projected corridor under these wind assumptions.
Most plausible targets near Edinburgh
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faslane (HMNB Clyde, SSBN) | military | 102 km | 800 kt | high |
| Menwith Hill, UK | communication | 236 km | 150 kt | high |
| RAF Lakenheath | military | 463 km | 300 kt | high |
| Heathrow, London | airport | 530 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Whitehall, London | government | 534 km | 455 kt | high |
Key blast radii (800 kt surface burst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 1.1 km | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 2.5 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 5.1 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 10.3 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.8 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 11.5 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Edinburgh can prepare
With a population density of 1,900 people/km², Edinburgh's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
Check your exact address in Edinburgh →