Rio de Janeiro city centre sits 363.2 km from São Paulo (Paulista), the most plausible strategic target in the area (low targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 300 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99% · Estimated metro fatalities: 855.9K, injuries: 1M
What a strike on São Paulo (Paulista) would mean
A 300 kt detonation produces a fireball 646 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.3 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 4.6 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 10.4 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 6.9 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Rio de Janeiro the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near Rio de Janeiro
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo (Paulista) | city | 363 km | 300 kt | low |
| Buenos Aires | city | 1968 km | 150 kt | low |
| Lagos | city | 6025 km | 100 kt | low |
| Johannesburg | city | 7120 km | 100 kt | low |
| Kings Bay Naval Base (SSBN) | military | 7240 km | 800 kt | high |
Key blast radii (300 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 646 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 2.3 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 4.6 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 6.9 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.4 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 10.4 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Rio de Janeiro can prepare
With a population density of 5,300 people/km², Rio de Janeiro's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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