Las Vegas city centre sits 40.0 km from Hoover Dam, the most plausible strategic target in the area (medium targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 100 kt surface burst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99%
What a strike on Hoover Dam would mean
A 100 kt detonation produces a fireball 479 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.3 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 2.6 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 5.8 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 4.4 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 52 km east of ground zero. Las Vegas city centre lies outside the projected corridor under these wind assumptions.
Most plausible targets near Las Vegas
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoover Dam | energy | 40 km | 100 kt | medium |
| Port of LA / Long Beach | port | 388 km | 300 kt | high |
| Naval Base San Diego | military | 430 km | 455 kt | high |
| Palo Verde nuclear plant | energy | 373 km | 150 kt | medium |
| LAX, Los Angeles | airport | 387 km | 150 kt | medium |
Key blast radii (100 kt surface burst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 479 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.3 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 2.6 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 4.4 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 1.9 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 5.8 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Las Vegas can prepare
With a population density of 1,800 people/km², Las Vegas's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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