Seattle city centre sits 28.9 km from Naval Base Kitsap (SSBN), the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 800 kt surface burst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 85%
What a strike on Naval Base Kitsap (SSBN) would mean
A 800 kt detonation produces a fireball 1.1 km across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.5 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 5.1 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 11.5 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 10.3 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 134 km east of ground zero. Seattle city centre lies inside that projected corridor — sheltering indoors for 24–48 hours would be critical.
Most plausible targets near Seattle
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval Base Kitsap (SSBN) | military | 29 km | 800 kt | high |
| Port of Seattle–Tacoma | port | 1 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Grand Coulee Dam | energy | 253 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Malmstrom silo cluster SW | military | 744 km | 800 kt | high |
| Malmstrom ICBM field (MT) | military | 835 km | 800 kt | high |
Key blast radii (800 kt surface burst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 1.1 km | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 2.5 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 5.1 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 10.3 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.8 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 11.5 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Seattle can prepare
With a population density of 3,400 people/km², Seattle's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
Check your exact address in Seattle →