Xi'an city centre sits 318.5 km from Luoyang missile base, the most plausible strategic target in the area (medium targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 300 kt surface burst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99%
What a strike on Luoyang missile base would mean
A 300 kt detonation produces a fireball 743 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.8 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 3.7 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 8.3 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 6.9 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 86 km east of ground zero. Xi'an city centre lies outside the projected corridor under these wind assumptions.
Most plausible targets near Xi'an
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luoyang missile base | military | 318 km | 300 kt | medium |
| Three Gorges Dam | energy | 436 km | 300 kt | medium |
| Jilantai missile test range | military | 605 km | 300 kt | medium |
| Chengdu (aerospace/defence) | industrial | 620 km | 300 kt | medium |
| Wuhan (Hubei, industrial/command) | city | 653 km | 300 kt | medium |
Key blast radii (300 kt surface burst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 743 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.8 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 3.7 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 6.9 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.4 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 8.3 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Xi'an can prepare
With a population density of 1,100 people/km², Xi'an's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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