Baghdad city centre sits 459.1 km from Arak IR-40, Iran, the most plausible strategic target in the area (medium targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 150 kt surface burst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99%
What a strike on Arak IR-40, Iran would mean
A 150 kt detonation produces a fireball 563 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.4 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 2.9 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 6.6 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 5.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
Because military and hardened targets are typically attacked with surface bursts, fallout matters here: with prevailing winds the dangerous plume would stretch roughly 63 km east of ground zero. Baghdad city centre lies outside the projected corridor under these wind assumptions.
Most plausible targets near Baghdad
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arak IR-40, Iran | energy | 459 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Natanz enrichment, Iran | energy | 683 km | 150 kt | high |
| Tehran government district | government | 698 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Dimona Nuclear Research, Israel | energy | 905 km | 150 kt | high |
| Tel Aviv / HaKirya | military | 906 km | 150 kt | high |
Key blast radii (150 kt surface burst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 563 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.4 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 2.9 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 5.2 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.1 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 6.6 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Baghdad can prepare
With a population density of 5,500 people/km², Baghdad's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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