Busan city centre sits 9.9 km from Port of Busan, the most plausible strategic target in the area (medium targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 150 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99% · Estimated metro fatalities: 81.8K, injuries: 98.6K
What a strike on Port of Busan would mean
A 150 kt detonation produces a fireball 490 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 1.8 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 3.7 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 8.2 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 5.2 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Busan the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near Busan
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port of Busan | port | 10 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Camp Humphreys, South Korea | military | 271 km | 300 kt | high |
| Osan Air Base, South Korea | military | 280 km | 300 kt | high |
| Iwakuni MCAS, Japan | military | 311 km | 300 kt | high |
| Seoul (Yongsan / government) | government | 321 km | 300 kt | high |
Key blast radii (150 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 490 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 1.8 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 3.7 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 5.2 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.1 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 8.2 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Busan can prepare
With a population density of 4,500 people/km², Busan's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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