San Antonio city centre sits 314.4 km from Port of Houston, the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 300 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99% · Estimated metro fatalities: 87.9K, injuries: 105.8K
What a strike on Port of Houston would mean
A 300 kt detonation produces a fireball 646 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.3 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 4.6 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 10.4 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 6.9 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for San Antonio the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near San Antonio
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port of Houston | port | 314 km | 300 kt | high |
| Houston refining complex | energy | 330 km | 300 kt | high |
| Dallas/Fort Worth Intl | airport | 410 km | 150 kt | medium |
| Barksdale AFB (B-52) | military | 574 km | 455 kt | high |
| Henry Hub, LA | energy | 587 km | 150 kt | medium |
Key blast radii (300 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 646 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 2.3 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 4.6 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 6.9 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.4 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 10.4 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How San Antonio can prepare
With a population density of 1,100 people/km², San Antonio's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
Check your exact address in San Antonio →