São Paulo city centre sits 2.6 km from São Paulo (Paulista), the most plausible strategic target in the area (low targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 300 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 25% · Estimated metro fatalities: 855.9K, injuries: 1M
What a strike on São Paulo (Paulista) would mean
A 300 kt detonation produces a fireball 646 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.3 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 4.6 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 10.4 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 6.9 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for São Paulo the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near São Paulo
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo (Paulista) | city | 3 km | 300 kt | low |
| Buenos Aires | city | 1675 km | 150 kt | low |
| Lagos | city | 6374 km | 100 kt | low |
| Kings Bay Naval Base (SSBN) | military | 7098 km | 800 kt | high |
| Port of Savannah | port | 7195 km | 150 kt | medium |
Key blast radii (300 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 646 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 2.3 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 4.6 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 6.9 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.4 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 10.4 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How São Paulo can prepare
With a population density of 7,400 people/km², São Paulo's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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