Nanjing city centre sits 348.8 km from Port of Shanghai, the most plausible strategic target in the area (high targeting confidence). Modelled strike: 300 kt airburst.
Estimated survival chance at city centre: 99%
What a strike on Port of Shanghai would mean
A 300 kt detonation produces a fireball 646 m across in radius. Reinforced concrete fails out to 2.3 km (20 psi). Most residential buildings collapse within 4.6 km (5 psi), and windows shatter dangerously out to 10.4 km (1 psi). Anyone in line of sight within 6.9 km suffers third-degree burns from the thermal pulse.
An airburst maximises blast damage but produces minimal local fallout, so for Nanjing the dominant risks are blast and thermal effects rather than radiation.
Most plausible targets near Nanjing
| Target | Type | Distance | Assumed yield | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port of Shanghai | port | 349 km | 300 kt | high |
| Wuhan (Hubei, industrial/command) | city | 457 km | 300 kt | medium |
| Qingdao naval base | military | 469 km | 300 kt | medium |
| Luoyang missile base | military | 658 km | 300 kt | medium |
| Three Gorges Dam | energy | 752 km | 300 kt | medium |
Key blast radii (300 kt airburst)
| Effect | Radius | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Fireball | 646 m | Complete vaporisation |
| 20 psi blast | 2.3 km | Hardened structures destroyed, ~100% fatalities |
| 5 psi blast | 4.6 km | Most buildings collapse, widespread fatalities |
| 3rd-degree burns | 6.9 km | Full-thickness burns to exposed skin |
| 500 rem radiation | 2.4 km | Lethal dose without medical care |
| 1 psi blast | 10.4 km | Window breakage, light damage, glass injuries |
How Nanjing can prepare
With a population density of 2,000 people/km², Nanjing's outcome would hinge on the first hour. The guidance is identical everywhere: get inside, stay inside, stay tuned. A basement or the core of a large concrete building cuts fallout exposure by a factor of 10 or more, and radiation decays fast — dose rates fall ~90% within the first 7 hours and ~99% within two days.
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